El Nino Puts India on Course for Driest Monsoon in Seventeen Years

…the final week of September and bring some relief to eastern and northeastern India, according to Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics, Bloomberg reported. However, Werner expects the storm to have little impact on the overall national rainfall deficit, which he estimates will remain between 13% and 16%. Forecasts from academics and weather experts on Lancaster University's CRUCIAL prediction platform also point to a weak monsoon. The platform gives a 68% probability that the season will end with rainfall 10% to 20%…

…adding to food-price pressures. Food inflation rose for a seventh consecutive month in August to 5.95%, its highest level this year, while rice, sugar cane and corn plantings are trailing last year's levels. According to Yuvika Singhal, an economist at QuantEco, every 1 percentage-point shortfall in rainfall relative to normal levels typically pushes food inflation higher by about 25 basis points. The government has already taken steps to strengthen supplies amid weaker rainfall and rising prices. These include allowing duty-free sugar imports and selling onions at subsidized prices in some states to contain…