Most Economists See RBI Raising Rates in October Policy

…will be around 20 bps higher than RBI's estimate of 4.7%, Kotak Mahindra Bank chief economist Upasana Bhardwaj said. SBI chief economic adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh cautioned that inflation is getting generalised. " It's time to build moats through a 25 bps hike in Oct and Dec MPC each, and then to pause and take stock with upcoming data. " Crisil chief economist D K Joshi said space is shrinking for monetary policy to remain in wait-and-watch mode and a tightening cycle is expected to begin soon. "The upcoming policy is likely to be more hawkish and the…

…and then to pause and take stock with upcoming data." Crisil chief economist D K Joshi said space is shrinking for monetary policy to remain in wait-and-watch mode and a tightening cycle is expected to begin soon. " The upcoming policy is likely to be more hawkish and the probability of change in stance or rates or both has risen. We expect 25 bps hike in 2026 ," he said. IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sengupta said the probability of rate hike is high in Oct as inflation is expected to peak in the next quarter. "FY27 retail inflation is expected to average 5% (with…

…rates or both has risen. We expect 25 bps hike in 2026," he said. IDFC First Bank chief economist Gaura Sengupta said the probability of rate hike is high in Oct as inflation is expected to peak in the next quarter. " FY27 retail inflation is expected to average 5% (with upside risk). The rate hike cycle is expected to be shallow, with cumulative hikes of 50-75 bps ," she said. ICRA Ratings chief economist Aditi Nayar said if crude oil prices remain elevated in the run-up to the upcoming MPC meeting, then the expected rate hike could be advanced to Oct, while estimating a 50 bps…

…watch on the numbers. India Ratings chief economist D K Pant said there is a case for RBI to undertake rate hike, although it may turn counterproductive in Oct, as the liquidity situation is far from stabilising. " The leading indicator in the upcoming meet will be the liquidity situation, instead of headline inflation figure. There is a high possibility that RBI will maintain the status quo ," he said. "Only by Dec, we will have a clear picture of the inflation cycle, which could then trigger a hike of 25-50 bps," said Bank of Baroda's Madan Sabnavis. HDFC Bank principal economist Sakshi Gupta shared the…

…is far from stabilising. "The leading indicator in the upcoming meet will be the liquidity situation, instead of headline inflation figure. There is a high possibility that RBI will maintain the status quo," he said. " Only by Dec, we will have a clear picture of the inflation cycle, which could then trigger a hike of 25-50 bps ," said Bank of Baroda's Madan Sabnavis. HDFC Bank principal economist Sakshi Gupta shared the same view.…