The record
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- Researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research report the first statistically significant evidence that the rate of global warming has accelerated since around 2015.
- After filtering out natural effects like El Nino, volcanic eruptions and solar cycles, they found the planet warmed at about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015.
- The finding held across five major global temperature datasets with over 98 per cent statistical certainty.
- The study did not determine the cause of the acceleration, but its lead author warns that if the recent pace continues, the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement could be exceeded long-term before 2030.
What to watch next
- Whether the faster warming rate of the past decade continues in coming years
- The pace of global CO2 emissions cuts, which the authors say will decide future warming speed
- Further research into why the warming rate has accelerated, since this study did not establish the cause
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Named United States · Germany · Paris Agreement · Berkeley Earth · ERA5 · Geophysical Research Letters · Grant Foster · HadCRUT · NASA · NOAA · Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research · Science Daily · Stefan Rahmstorf
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