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- Weather scientists say the El Nino phenomenon is reaching an extreme phase, increasing swings in India's monsoon between heavy rain and dry spells.
- The monsoon trough has shifted from northern plains towards central India, bringing moderate, scattered rain of 10-40 mm to parts of UP, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh and northern Rajasthan, while heavy rain continues over Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra and may move towards Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southern Rajasthan, raising flood-like concerns there.
- Southern states like Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are seeing weak rainfall linked to El Nino.
- The next 7-10 days are considered crucial, as a weak monsoon trough could mean below-average rain across India in August, affecting agriculture and water resources.
What to watch next
- Whether the monsoon trough strengthens or shifts north in the next 7-10 days, which will decide August rainfall
- Possibility of flood-like conditions in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and southern Rajasthan amid forecasts of heavy rain
- Dryness in Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Kerala-Karnataka regions, where a weak trough could worsen rainfall deficits
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