The record
Written from the 1 report below. Nothing here is unsourced.
- A University of Miami-based research center projects that a powerful El Niño, likely the strongest in modern history, could push the monthly global average temperature past 2C of warming above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record in early 2027.
- The probability of such a month has risen to 35-40% as meteorologists upgraded their El Niño estimates.
- The report notes this comes on top of possible accelerating global warming, and that El Niño is expected to worsen drought and strain food production in some regions.
- While a single month above 2C may be largely symbolic, scientists stress every increment of warming affects temperatures, precipitation and soil moisture.
What to watch next
- Whether a month in early 2027 actually exceeds 2C of warming, given the 35-40% projected probability
- How strong the current El Niño turns out to be and its effects on drought and food production
- Whether the possible acceleration of warming, including reduced cooling from aerosol pollution, is confirmed by scientists
Coverage1
1 report
English national1
All filed from India
Named United States · China · Ben Kirtman · Copernicus Climate Change Service · European Union · Kate Marvel · Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science · UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · University of Miami
The 1 report is listed beside the record.
Ask this story
Answers cite the reports above, or say they can't.