The record
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- The 10% tariff on most Indian goods entering the US, imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's original tariff regime, expires on July 24 as it was always meant to as a temporary measure.
- India and other trading partners now face uncertainty over what replaces it, with two Section 301 investigations open against India — one on forced labour that has already proposed an extra 12.5% duty, and another on excess manufacturing capacity.
- A separate Senate bill would authorise tariffs of up to 100% on Indian goods over Russia oil purchases, and an interim trade agreement that would settle the tariff question is close but unsigned.
- Roughly half of India's exports to the US, including smartphones and pharmaceuticals, currently remain exempt from the additional tariff, though Trump has announced a schedule for future generic drug tariffs starting August 1.
What to watch next
- Whether Section 301 tariffs, especially the proposed 12.5% forced-labour duty, are applied before or after the July 24 expiry
- Signing of the interim India-US trade agreement, with India seeking clarity on a preferential tariff versus competitors like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Philippines
- Progress of the Senate bill authorising up to 100% tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil purchases
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Named United States · India · Automobiles · Pharmaceuticals · Smartphones · Steel · Asia Group · Congress · Donald Trump · Mark Linscott · Piyush Goyal · US Supreme Court
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