The record
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- A study by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, projects that dengue cases in Kerala could rise by 16-20% between 2021 and 2040 due to climate change.
- Nearly 60% of dengue cases in Kerala occur during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, closely following the rainfall cycle.
- Rainfall, humidity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation were identified as the key drivers of dengue transmission in the State.
- Under high-emission pathways, dengue risk could rise by up to 113% by 2081-2100, according to the study's future simulations.
- The findings matter because they can support climate-informed dengue early warning systems and long-term public health planning in Kerala.
What to watch next
- Refinement of block-level dengue forecasts using high-resolution climate and epidemiological data.
- Impact of future dengue vaccines currently in development on projected risk.
- Possible sudden surges in cases from changes in circulating dengue virus strains.
Who said what1
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Roxy Mathew Koll
1 quote · 1 outlet
“the model can predict the peak and weaker phases of dengue transmission more accurately when high-resolution climate and epidemiological data are available.”
In the article
…along with moderately high monsoon rainfall of 180-450 mm a month, were found to favour higher dengue incidence. Peak and weaker phases According to climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of IITM, Pune, who led the study, the model can predict the peak and weaker phases of dengue transmission more accurately when high-resolution climate and epidemiological data are available. Such data are particularly important at the block level in Keralam because of variations in maritime and orographic influences, monsoon rainfall and its active and break phases. For instance, the southwest monsoon is…
Why it matters2
Who is affected first and what likely follows, with a direction and a horizon. Extracted from the reports, never invented.
- Kerala public health system resource strain· longer
- Kerala residents increased disease burden· longer
Coverage1
All filed from IndiaSingle origin
Named India · Kerala · Centre for Climate Change Research · Government Medical College, Thrissur · ICMR-National Institute of Translational Virology and AIDS Research · Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology · Kerala University of Health Sciences · Roxy Mathew Koll · Savitribai Phule Pune University
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