India's Russian Oil Imports Driven by Supply Shocks Not Discounts

…crude basket jumped from 0 per cent to 30 per cent between March 2022 to June 2023, likely due to discounts, the additional 1 million barrel per day since March 2026 “can’t be explained by price dynamics alone”. “ First, the average discount on Russian crude vs. West Asia has been stable at $3-5/bbl since 2023. Second, Russia’s share of Indian crude imports rose despite premiums of up to $7/bbl. If India were to procure these excess 60-80 mn barrels in the spot market, oil prices would likely be higher than today ,” the report argued. Recent experience shows that the threat of very high tariffs is more useful as leverage in trade negotiations than tariffs themselves, and higher oil prices have a more direct passthrough on US…